Withdrawal Calculator

The 4% rule (also called the Bengen rule) states that you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in the first year of retirement, then adjust for inflation annually, with a high likelihood of your money lasting 30+ years. Based on historical market data, a 4% withdrawal rate has historically survived nearly all 30-year retirement periods.

A systematic withdrawal plan (SWP) is a strategy where you withdraw a fixed amount from your investment portfolio at regular intervals — typically monthly. Unlike selling everything at once, your remaining balance continues to grow through investment returns, potentially extending how long your savings last.

A conservative, inflation-adjusted return of 4–6% is commonly used for retirement projections. Retirees typically hold a more balanced portfolio (stocks + bonds) than during accumulation, which tends to reduce both returns and volatility. More aggressive projections might use 6–8% for nominal returns.

If the calculator shows depletion before your time period ends, consider: (1) reducing monthly withdrawals, (2) increasing your starting balance by working longer, (3) targeting a higher investment return, or (4) planning for supplemental income like Social Security or part-time work in early retirement.

At a 4% withdrawal rate ($40,000/year), $1 million has historically lasted 30+ years with a diversified stock/bond portfolio. With 7% annual returns and $3,333/month withdrawals, the calculator shows the portfolio actually grows over 30 years. At higher withdrawal rates — $5,000/month (6%) — $1 million depletes in roughly 20 years. Use the calculator above with your specific withdrawal amount and return assumption.

At $2,000/month ($24,000/year), $500,000 at 6% return lasts indefinitely — the portfolio grows. At $3,000/month ($36,000/year = 7.2% rate), it lasts approximately 18–20 years. At $2,500/month ($30,000/year), it lasts about 25 years at 5% return. Enter your specific numbers in the calculator — small differences in withdrawal amount and return rate change the outcome dramatically.

The standard guidance is to withdraw no more than 4% of your portfolio per year — the '4% rule' based on Trinity Study research. For a $1,000,000 portfolio, that is $40,000/year or $3,333/month. For a $500,000 portfolio, it is $20,000/year or $1,667/month. If you are retiring before 60, consider 3–3.5% to account for a longer retirement horizon.

The 4% rule comes from the 1994 Trinity Study, which found that a portfolio of 50-75% stocks could sustain 4% annual withdrawals for 30 years across all historical periods including the Great Depression. More recent research suggests 3.3–3.5% may be safer given lower expected bond returns and longer life expectancies. For early retirees with 40+ year horizons, many planners use 3.5% as a conservative base.

If the calculator shows your portfolio depleting before your target period, you have four levers: reduce your monthly withdrawal, increase your expected return (by adjusting asset allocation), add a part-time income source in early retirement (Barista FIRE), or delay retirement to accumulate more. The most impactful change is usually reducing withdrawal by 10–15%, which can add years or decades to portfolio survival.